Prevented Planting decisions – Four points to ponder after weekend storms | Michigan Farm News

Prevented Planting decisions – Four points to ponder after weekend storms

Category: Livestock, Markets & Weather, Crops

by David Widmar, Agricultural Economic Insights; Farm News Media

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Fresh off a weekend of severe weather — high winds and heavy rains across southern lower Michigan — continued planting delays are expected. In Barry County, a tornado touched down just long enough to destroy three barns on the farm of Rod Crothers, located near the corner of Cloverdale and Barryville Road in Maple Grove Township. | Photos courtesy George Hubka

Although updated planting progress data as of Monday, May 20, had not been posted, it’s not expected to show much improvement from last week’s figures. This update follows a series of spotty rain events over the past week, which included a string of severe storms that moved across the state this past weekend.

Barry-Storm-2-MFN-2019According to the National Ag Statistics Service’s May 13 crop progress report, 63% of Michigan cropland topsoil moisture was already rated as “surplus.” At that point, only 5% of the state’s corn acres had been planted compared to the five-year average of 34%, while only 3% of Michigan soybean acres have been planted versus the five-year average of 17%.

Nationally, as of the week of May 13, only 30% of the U.S. corn crop was planted. With May more than half complete and the U.S. corn crop less than half planted, persistently wet weather and the potential implications have come to the forefront. What’s the latest planting progress data and the implications for U.S. corn and soybean production in 2019?

Four times in history corn planting progress has been less than 40% complete in week 19 (Figure 1). When comparing these years with trend-adjusted yields, history doesn’t point to large crops.

Yields were mostly below-trend, but not always: 1984 (29% planted, .6 bushels above trend), 1993 (40% planted, 22 bushels below trend), 1995 (36% planted, 13 bushels below trend), and 2013 (28% planted, 2 bushels below trend).

Thinking about conditions geographically, corn planting progress is slowest in the Eastern Corn Belt. Compared to the last 40 years, planting in Illinois (second slowest), Indiana (slowest) Michigan (slowest), and Ohio (slowest) have been hardest hit. Western states — Iowa (sixth slowest), Minnesota (third slowest), and Nebraska (seventh slowest) — have been less impacted.

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Figure 1. U.S. Corn Planting Progress at Week 19, 1980-2019. Average = 65% (in black). Data Source: USDA NASS.

Potential Corn Yield Impacts

It’s worth noting the USDA’s World Ag Outlook Board includes corn planting progress at May 15th as a variable in a corn yield estimate model they consider. Scott Irwin did a great job summarizing how the slow planting progress might have impacted the USDA’s May WASDE yield estimate. His estimate was that baseline yields — which starts at 176 — might be 9.5 bushels per acres lower. His threads before the WASDE report and after the WASDE — where the USDA didn’t adjust yields — are worth a read.

We’re guessing that USDA has hesitated to pull 2019 yields lower given what happened in 2013. In that year, when planting progress at week 19 was the slowest on record, final yields were only slightly below trend (two bushels below).

To summarize the late planting situation for corn, 2019 planting progress has been historically slow. If you were forecasting the probability of corn yields being below the USDA’s baseline of 176 bushels per acre, the delayed planting forecasts would (likely) lead you to lower your forecast. That said, we don’t think the data would suggest that a below-trend (176) yield — based on this information alone — is a certainty.

Corn Prevented Planting Acres

Prevented planting acres for corn and soybeans have been historically low in recent years. Since 2016, corn prevented planting acres were equal to about 1% of final planted acres. This is much lower than the 12-year average of 1.8%.

When the USDA released it’s March prospective planting estimate, they assumed a more normal level of prevented planting acres. In other words, some of the potential increase from recent years has already been baked-in, so to speak.

The March prospective planting report placed corn acres at 92.8 million acres. Any decrease in corn acres due to prevented planting would likely have to come on prevented planting above something higher than recent years — say 1.8% or so.

Keep in mind that the high-water mark for prevented planting acres in recent years — 2013 — was 3.6 million acres or 3.8% of total corn planted. A 1% point movement — when expected corn acres are 92.8 million — is roughly equal for 930,000 acres. In other words, even if prevented planting approached 2013 levels, the U.S. would still plant north of 90 million acres of corn in 2019.

Soybean Planting Progress

At first glance, 2019 soybean planted progress — 9% at Week 19 — seems more surprising. However, soybean progress has fared better than corn. Since 1980, soybeans have, on average, been 22% planted at week 19. Nationally, this is the fifth slowest planting pace for soybeans (compared to third slowest for corn).

Again, geography plays a role with Illinois (second slowest), Indiana (slowest), and Ohio (slowest) feeling the most pressure.


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Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Planting Progress at Week 19, 1980-2019. Average = 22% (in black). Data Source: USDA NASS.

Potential Soybean Yield Impacts

The yield impact of later planting soybeans is less clear. Specifically, the USDA’s model for forecasting soybean yields does not include a planting progress variable. We know that, at the field-level, planting too late impacts yields. However, the implication — at least at the national level — is that late planting doesn’t have explanatory power for national soybean yields. In its report, the USDA attributes this to soybean’s “wider window for soybean reproduction.”

Soybean Prevented Planting Acres

As was the case with corn, soybean acres filed as prevented planting have recently been below average. Since 2016, prevented planting has accounted for less than .5% of soybean acres. The average, however, is 1.2%. Given the USDA’s prospective planting report has built in an expectation closer to this average, this might limit the impact of an uptick in prevented planting acres in 2019 (compared to the last three years) on USDA forecasts and market responses.

What about Corn Acres Switching to Beans?

Something we often hear as planting weather delays set in is the idea producers will switch acres planned for corn into soybeans. This makes senses anecdotally, but it’s worth stepping back a bit and considering the data. Since 2007, prevented planting acres of corn (1.8% of planted acres) has been larger than that of soybeans (1.2% of planted acres). In fact, in many years, prevented planting corn acres well-outpaced soybeans. This piece of data seems to contradict the idea that producer will just roll late corn acres into soybeans. We aren’t saying it doesn’t or won’t happen, but be careful with that assumption.

Wrapping it Up

For a host of reasons, 2019 is setting up to be a memorable one. With respect to the late planting season, there are a couple of key points to keep in mind:

  1. Planting pace is slow, but not “off the charts.” Weather delays have been more painful for corn than soybeans. Also, the Eastern Corn Belt has been harder hit.
  2. Delayed planting has set the stage for potential corn yield reductions at the national level. That said, below-trend yields in 2019 are far from a certainty. Summer weather is still in play. For soybeans, the impact on national yields isn’t clear. Of course, it will be late summer until the first firm yield forecasts are available.
  3. Prevented planting acres are a second area that could trim 2019 production. Keep in mind there are changes from recent years and changes from long-run averages. The USDA March prospective planting estimates have included assumption closer to long-run averages. Also, corn has, historically, seen more prevented planting acres than soybeans (when measured as a percent of planted acres). It’ll be the June 28 Acreage Report when we get a closer, updated look at potential acreage impacts.
  4. Finally, as crop insurance planting dates approach, many producers will have difficult production decisions to make. The first step is reaching out to their crop insurance providers (click here for final crop insurance dates for corn and soybeans). At this point, it’s also not clear how any potential USDA trade aid payments might fit into prevented planting decision.

In summary, weather delays will force many producers to face “to plant, or not to plant” decisions as corn final planting dates approach. May 25 (Western Corn Belt), May 31 (Central Corn Belt), and June 5 (Eastern Corn Belt) are key dates. At the national level, the impacts on 2019 production are far from clear and it will be many weeks, if not months, before the scale is known.