Advocates seeking approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during the lame-duck session of Congress are out of luck, says Michigan State University Agriculture Economist, Dr. Dave Schweikhardt. In comments at a recent MFB 2016 Election Recap event, he also predicted that passage of the trade-deal will not be a priority of the Trump Administration in the short-term.
“I would not expect movement on TPP until after 2018, and maybe not until after the 2020 election,” advised Schweikhardt, adding that negotiations will apply not only to the trade package itself, but also in the implementing legislation, if it’s ever considered, to protect specific segments of industry.
And, despite campaign promises to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Schweikhardt says it won’t be a one-way street. “There will be no renegotiation in which we only negotiate about the subjects we want to negotiate on,” he said. “I’m sure the other side would be willing to sit down and talk, but when they do, they’re going to present us with their list of demands.”
That list of counter demands could have a significant impact on major US agricultural exports such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and dry beans. “Right now, the biggest winner in these trade agreements overall, has been the aggregate sector of agriculture,” Schweikhardt warned.