USDA report defies market expectations | Michigan Farm News

USDA report defies market expectations

Category: Crops

by Farm News Media

Flooded-Corn-Field_MFN_8.12.19

Crop producers looking for major revisions to the USDA’s June Planted Acreage Report in today’s revised Crop Production report were dealt another curveball. USDA, while making minor adjustments to planted corn acres and corresponding yields, fell far short of market expectations, sending nearby and new-crop corn contracts limit-down 25 cents within minutes of the report’s release.

According to the USDA, survey respondents who reported acreage as not yet planted for corn, cotton, sorghum, and soybeans in 14 states for the acreage report (released June 28, 2019) were re-contacted in July.

“When planting delays occur NASS has established procedures and processes in place to re-contact respondents,” USDA reported. “In addition to the updated survey information, NASS considered Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage information as well as satellite-based indications of acreage to update planted and harvested acreage estimates for this report.”

Corn Production Down 4% from 2018

The 2019 corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 90 million acres, down 2% from the June 28 estimate but up 1 percent from 2018. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82 million acres, down 2% from the previous forecast but up less than 1 percent from last year.

At 13.9 billion bushels, 2019 corn production for grain is forecast to be the fifth-highest production on record for the United States. The forecasted yield, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is down 4% from last year’s final estimate of 176.4 bushels per acre. Record-high yields are forecast for Kentucky and Tennessee.

Michigan 2019 corn acres for grain, according to USDA, were reported at 1.7 million acres, down slightly from the 2018 figure of 1.94 million acres. Projected yields were increased from 2018’s 153 bushels per acre to 155 bushels per acre, with total Michigan corn production adjusted down 11% to 263,500,000 bushels from 2018’s total of 296,820,000 bushels.

Soybean Production Down 19% from 2018

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 19% from 2018. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 48.5 bushels per harvested acre, down 3.1 bushels from 2018.

Area harvested for beans is forecast at 75.9 million acres, down 4% from the previous forecast and 14% from 2018. Area planted for all purposes totaled 76.7 million acres, down 4% from the previous estimate and 14 percent from 2018.

USDA projections for 2019 Michigan soybean acres were pegged at 1.72 million acres, down from last year’s 2.28 million acres, with yields predicted to drop from 48 bushels per acre in 2018 to 45 in 2019. Total Michigan soybean production is forecast to drop significantly from 109,440,000 bushels in 2018 to 77,400,000 bushels this year.

Winter Wheat Production Up 3% from July Forecast

All wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, up 3% from the previous forecast and up 5% from 2018. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 51.6 bushels per harvested acre, up 1.6 bushels from the previous forecast and up 4 bushels from 2018.

Area harvested for grain is forecast at 38.4 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3% from 2018.

Winter wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.33 billion bushels, up 3% from the previous forecast and up 12% from 2018. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 53.2 bushels per harvested acre, up 1.4 bushels from last month and up 5.3 bushels from 2018.

Area harvested for grain is forecast at 24.9 million acres, which is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 1% from 2018. Hard Red Winter production, at 840 million bushels, is up 4 percent from the previous forecast. Soft Red Winter, at 257 million bushels, is down 1 percent from the previous forecast. White Winter, at 229 million bushels, is up 1 percent from the previous forecast. Of the White Winter production, 24.6 million bushels are Hard White and 204 million bushels are Soft White.

Durum wheat production for grain is forecast at 57.3 million bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 26% from 2018. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.3 bushels per harvested acre, down .6 bushels from the previous forecast, but up 3 bushels from 2018. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 1.36 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 31 percent from 2018.