Old Crop (futures month, change, settle price)
New Crop (futures month, change, settle price)
Soybeans have been two sided this week with last Friday’s rally extending on Monday and Tuesday, but burning off Wednesday and Thursday. Dry forecasts for Argentina have been the trade focus as moisture levels are becoming a concern there. January soybeans notched a new high since July 2017 on Tuesday. The rally could not be sustained, however, as new highs brought producer selling pressure. Speculative traders have been hesitant to add longs with South America still very early in the growing season. Plenty of time for things to change there.
Corn is lower on the week with generally favorable South American weather and ethanol margins coming under pressure. Expect further tests of lows, but the path of least resistance is still sideways for corn, which has been the case since late August.
Wheat has also been lower throughout this week, pressured by big world stocks on hand that will make U.S. export business tough. Russian offers will remain stiff competition. The U.S. dollar has also firmed throughout the week, ahead of statements from the Fed on future interest rate hikes, which will pressure commodities in general.
Exports for last week were bearish again. Total soybean export sales are down 16% from last year. Corn sales are down 27%, and wheat export sales are down 10% from last year.
The USDA releases updated grain ending stocks estimates Tuesday. Trade estimates call for increased soybean and wheat U.S. ending stocks, and unchanged corn ending stocks from the USDA’s November estimates. World ending stocks are expected to be trimmed across the board. South American production estimates will also be included. The dry start in Argentina is reflected in expectations for decreases to Argentina corn and soybean production. Brazilian corn production is also expected to be trimmed, while trade estimates are on both sides of the USDA November estimate for Brazilian beans.
POLL-Tradeestimates for USDA December U.S. grain end-stocks
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