Old Crop (futures month, change, settle price)
New Crop (futures month, change, settle price)
Corn, positively, held its gains for the week. Trade seems content to wait on Monday’s crop progress report to confirm further planting delays during the week, which figures to lend support. The CFTC commitment of traders report will be watched closely over the next couple weeks to see how much of the fund record net short has been reduced over this rally. Corn failed to break through some firm resistance Friday, which could weigh on trade coming out of the weekend, but certainly didn’t bounce away from those levels.
July corn closed at 383’2, above prior resistance at the 100 which now becomes support at 381’1. Nest support is the 40 day at 369’1. Resistance is the 200 day at 386’7, as well as the eleven month high on the continuous chart at 386’4. Dec 19 corn closed positively above the 200 day moving average, but failed to break through the purely psychological 400 mark.
Soybeans closed down 18 cents without support from an extended corn rally. Funds were happy Friday to add shorts as there haven’t been any encouraging developments on trade in the past few days to support the recent gain in beans. Planting delays could become a real issue for soybeans soon, but for now corn is garnering the attention and there is some lingering thought (right or wrong) that delayed corn acres could switch to beans. More and more serious talks of another government trade aid package will also lend pressure.
July soybeans failed throughout the week to break through resistance at the 20 day moving average, but did refill the gap made on the 6th. Support is the contract low at 791.
Wheat rode the corn rally throughout with short covering from funds, but failed to make a fifth consecutive higher close Friday, again without corn making an extension higher. SRW areas will continue to be a supportive factor, whereas big U.S. and world stocks, as well as more favorable growing conditions abroad, carry the bear argument.
July Chicago wheat didn’t come close to testing the 100 day moving average at 483’7, which is resistance. Support is the 20 day at 441’3, then the contract low at 418’4.
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